Myth 1: Those opposed to the proposed Bi-County Parkway are opposed to growth

Reality: Prince William County's population will continue to grow. There are no guards at the county borders keeping people out; there is no option of "no growth." The only question is where to grow. Since 1988, the Prince William County Comprehensive Plan has answered that question clearly. New development is encouraged in the Development Area, where public facilities such as schools, sewers, fire stations, and roads will be concentrated. A Rural Area is designated for agricultural and large lot (10 acre) housing.

Encouraging development within the Development Area reduces the taxpayer-funded costs for constructing the additional infrastructure required by new development. The county's Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) is based on the decision to steer new development to the Development Area.¹

Focus future public utilities and facilities, infrastructure improvements, and social service delivery systems within the Development Area with priority given to those areas where Prince William County is undertaking economic development or redevelopment initiatives, in accordance with the Economic Development Plan chapter.

Population increases and more economic development – growth - can benefit Prince William County. In particular, office development could provide local jobs, reducing the need for Prince William residents to commute on congested roads.

More commercial development would also generate property taxes, reducing the excessively-high burden on homeowners to pay for county services. In Prince William, commercial property (including apartments) pays only 18% of property taxes, compared to 26% in Fairfax and 49% in Arlington counties.²

However, the Bi-County Parkway cuts through the Rural Area, rather than improve transportation in the Development Area. This proposed road violates the county's philosophy of keeping taxes low by concentrating development and infrastructure in the Development Area.

Sources:

1. Action Strategy LU3.11, “Long Range Land Use,” Prince William County 2008 Comprehensive Plan, Prince William County, page LU-7.
2. Table 8: History of the Real Estate Tax Base , “2012 Annual Report,” Real Estate Assessments Office, Finance Department, Prince William County, Virginia, 2012 Real Estate Assessments Annual Report, p.9.
   “FY 2014 Fairfax County Advertised Budget Plan (Overview),” Fairfax County, p.119

Myth 2: The proposed road will reduce traffic congestion

Reality: 95% of all Prince William workers who commute outside the county go to locations other than Loudoun County.  Less than 6,000 commuters, out of nearly 200,000 total workers in Prince William, drive to Loudoun.  Almost 100,000 commuters go towards DC, to jobs in Fairfax, City of Fairfax, Falls Church, Alexandria, and DC itself, and 81,000 workers stay in Prince William or the cities of Manassas/Manassas Park.¹

The priority for most of those existing commuters to Loudoun County is to reduce congestion on Route 28.  Building a new road between Gainesville-Arcola will not reduce congestion affecting current commuters to Loudoun or the urban core.

The Bi-County Parkway is a road to the west side of Dulles, but jobs are east of the airport.  The Bi-County Parkway will do nothing to reduce congestion on the major commuter routes: I-66, Route 28, Route 123, and I-95. 

Directing funds to build a road to the wrong side of Dulles for speculative benefits would reduce funding for projects that could reduce real congestion for current commuters, including those 81,000 who want to see intra-county congestion reduced.

The Recommended Alternative in the “Final Report” for the North-South Corridor Master Plan issued April, 2013, does claim some traffic improvements along Route 234.  The Recommended Alternative is to build a new lane in each direction, so 234/234 Bypass would become a 6-lane highway all the way between Dumfries and I-66. 

The inner lane in each direction would be a High Occupancy Toll (HOT) lane, with toll gantries to collect tolls automatically built every 1/3-1/2 mile.  The “Final Report” assumes Prince William County will implement its Comprehensive Plan proposal for building interchanges at Balls Ford Road, Sudley Manor Drive, University Boulevard, Clover Hill Road, so the $1 billion estimate for the North-South corridor assumes that project will fund just one grade-separated interchange (at Brentsville Road).²

No existing access points on Route 234 would be blocked, so stoplights and turning cars at intersections between I-95 and Brentsville would still affect traffic flow.  Still, the study claims the morning drive from I-95 to Innovation could be reduced from 39 to 28 minutes in the HOT lanes.  An 11-minute time savings on Route 234 would reduce congestion for commuters going to work at Innovation, assuming those commuters used the HOT lanes.³   
  
Sources:

1. “Table 1. Residence County to Workplace County Flows for the United States and Puerto Rico Sorted by Residence Geography: 2006-2010,” Commuting (Journey to Work), Bureau of Census
2. “Final Report,” Northern Virginia North-South Corridor of Statewide Significance – Corridor Master Plan, Commonwealth of Virginia Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment, April 8, 2013, p.5-2,p.5-28, p.6-6,
3. “Final Report,” Northern Virginia North-South Corridor of Statewide Significance – Corridor Master Plan, Commonwealth of Virginia Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment, April 8, 2013, pp.D4-D

Myth 3: The proposed road will stimulate economic development in Prince William County

Reality: The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) issued the contractor-produced  “Final Report” for the North-South Corridor Master Plan in April, 2013. The Commonwealth Transportation Board is not required to implement everything proposed by a contractor, but the #1 justification for the road will not change.

The #1 reason presented by VDOT to build the Bi-County Parkway in that corridor was “Support Economic Growth.”  The #1 item listed to support that justification was “Ensure adequate capacity and access to allow for projected growth at Dulles International Airport area.”¹

Note the location: Dulles. The proposed Bi-County Parkway may enhance economic development, but if so… Loudoun County will get the benefits, not Prince William County.

The Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority has identified 3,000 undeveloped acres at Dulles airport, and prioritized 400 acres on the west side of the airport along Route 606 for initial development.² 

This is in clear competition with Prince William’s economic development plans, especially at the Innovation Technology Park near Gainesville.  More commercial development near Dulles would help Loudoun County generate new taxes, while Prince William homeowners continue to pay an excessive share of local property taxes because commercial growth occurred elsewhere.

Since the Shirley Highway (now I-95) reached the Occoquan River in 1948, Prince William has developed as a bedroom suburb that exports commuters to jobs in other jurisdictions.  Those other jurisdictions, with job centers, benefit from commercial property taxes on offices and sales taxes from commuters shopping at lunchtime near their office.  In contrast, Prince William relies heavily upon residential property taxes to pay for the schools that educate the children of nearly 100,000 commuters who work in Fairfax, Arlington, etc.

Prince William has a Strategic Vision for breaking that old pattern:³

Prince William County is a community of choice with a strong, diverse economic base, where families and individuals choose to live and work and businesses choose to locate.

As Thomas Edison said, “vision without execution is hallucination.” Implementing that vision requires stimulating economic development within Prince William, not perpetuating a pattern where commercial development occurs in other jurisdictions and Prince William provides bedrooms (and pays for schools). 

There’s no reason for Prince William to accept permanent subordinate status as a colony exporting workers to Loudoun/Fairfax, or to sacrifice its Rural Area to stimulate jobs in other counties – but the Bi-County Parkway does nothing to create jobs in Prince William.  It is counterproductive to support speculative growth at Dulles, rather than steer funding towards local transportation improvements that could spur businesses to grow jobs in Prince William.

One speaker at the March 4, 2013 public meeting on the road had a colorful analogy on how Prince William was being used without getting the economic advantages from the road, stating Prince William was being “pimped out for a one-night stand” without getting long-term benefits.

Sources:

1. “Final Report,” Northern Virginia North-South Corridor of Statewide Significance – Corridor Master Plan, Commonwealth of Virginia Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment, April 8, 2013, p.ES-2,
2. “MWAA Looks At Developing More Land At Dulles Airport,” December 20, 2012
   Mark Treadaway, Bill Lebegern, Pat Nowakowski, “Dulles International Airport: Economic Engine for Virginia” Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority presentation at 2012 Governor’s Transportation Conference, December 6; Martin Di Caro , “Northern Virginia Road Expansion: Betting on Dulles Airport as Freight Hub (Part 2),” Transportation Nation, December 21, 2012
3. “2013-2016 Strategic Plan,” Prince William County, p.7

Myth 4: Dulles is an economic engine, so building the Bi-County Parkway is the best way to spur more economic activity at Dulles.

Reality: VDOT trumpets that Dulles airport generates $10 billion annually in economic activity.¹ That is a big number, but what is the significance of it? To put that number into context: in 2011, the Gross Domestic Product for the entire state of Virginia was $428 billion, so Dulles accounts for just 2% of the state’s economic activity.²

The relevant questions are:

• how much more economic activity at Dulles would result from building the Bi-County Parkway?

• what alternative investments, for the same amount of money as building the Bi-County Parkway, would generate even more economic activity at Dulles - or in Prince William County?

No data has been provided by VDOT or Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority to answer either question. 
Spending $1 billion to build the Bi-County Parkway and associated components might spur more economic activity at Dulles.

For example, some air freight might be routed to Dulles instead of other airports, if FedEx and other trucks could get to I-81 faster during rush hour.

However, the number of potential additional truck shipments has never been quantified.  Smart freight shippers may still choose to dispatch their trucks at night when traffic congestion on all roads is minimal, so the $200 million-$1 billion to build the Bi-County Parkway may do nothing to help Dulles grow into a freight hub. 

Private sector businesses seek to maximize the return on investment (ROI) when investing in large projects.  VDOT has revealed no ROI statistics for the Bi-County Parkway or its alternatives, so it is impossible to assess if the road project is a “top of the list” investment or a stinker.
(Hint: if the ROI was positive, think VDOT would trumpet those statistics rather than avoid the question?)

Sources:

1. Mark Treadaway, Bill Lebegern, Pat Nowakowski, “Dulles International Airport: Economic Engine for Virginia,” Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority presentation at 2012 Governor’s Transportation Conference, December 6, 2012
2. “Total Gross Domestic Product by State for Virginia, 2011,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Myth 5: The proposed Bi-County Parkway will be a toll-free road.

Reality: Funding sources for the road will become clear only after the Commonwealth Transportation Board updates the Six-Year Improvement Program to spend $5.9 billion for transportation over the next five years, including new revenues approved by the General Assembly in 2013.¹
 
To spur legislative approval of new taxes, Governor McDonnell outlined what projects might be funded in his 2013 Transportation Funding Proposal.  The “Bi-County Parkway Route 234 Manassas National Battlefield Park Bypass” was slated to receive $10 million for preliminary engineering, but nothing for right-of-way acquisition or actual construction.2

Governor McDonnell and this Secretary of Transportation will leave office at the end of 2013.  If they intend to ensure the Bi-County Parkway is constructed, look for the Commonwealth Transportation Board to add funding for right-of-way acquisition and actual construction in the governor’s last update to the Six-Year Improvement Program.

However, do not expect VDOT to fund 100% of the Bi-County Parkway.  Even users of the Dulles Access Road could end up paying for a portion of the Bi-County Parkway

VDOT deputy secretary David Tyeryar revealed at a public meeting on March 4, 2013 that the Bi-County Parkway would have one lane in each direction without tolls (comparable to current Pageland Lane between Route 29 and Route 234), but an additional land in each direction would require a toll.  The contractor-produced “Final Report” for the North-South Corridor Master Plan proposed that all lanes between current Route 234 (Sudley Road, north of the battlefield) and U.S. 50 would HOV/HOT during peak travel periods, requiring a toll t get to Dulles from Prince William.3

VDOT could try to interest a private sector partner in building the road and recouping the private investment through collection of tolls in the future.  A Public-Private Transportation Agreement (PPTA) project would require the private investor to determine that demand for the High Occupancy Toll (HOT) lane would justify the cost, plus a premium above costs to absorb risk, inflation, and profit.

Transurban, the Australian company now managing HOT lanes on the Capital Beltway and building more on I-95, is the likely partner.  Transurban speculated on the Pocahontas Parkway south of Richmond, basing its revenue projections on new residential subdivisions generating increased traffic.  When the sprawl failed to develop, the company took a loss on its investment and fired top officials.4  

If a private partner decides that a toll-funded Bi-County Parkway would not be cost-effective, there is a precedent for Virginia to subsidize a PPTA proposal.
 
VDOT has arranged for a PPTA partner to build a new US 460 between Norfolk and Petersburg, helping cargo shipped into the port at Norfolk to reach I-95 and I-85.   The heavy cargo brought via ship on containers will require more trucks to move containers inland, but traffic projections on US 460 were too low to spur much interest by a PPTA partner. 

VDOT will cover 65% of the $1.4 billion cost of the new US 460 toll road, and the Virginia Port Authority committed $250 million to subsidize another 18% of it.  In the end, VDOT was able to convince a private entity to finance less than 20% of the new US 460 toll road.5   

If the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority proposes to subsidize the Bi-County Parkway to facilitate freight traffic, using the same justification as the Virginia Port Authority in subsidizing US 460, one factor to consider: air freight is typically low-volume, high-value material.  In contrast to the containers shipped into the port at Norfolk, air freight arriving at Dulles will require few trucks to ship cargo to final destinations. 

The Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority has an ace up its sleeve to generate money: it could raise tolls even further on the Dulles Access Road, beyond the recent increases to fund the extension of the Metrorail Silver Line.  Higher tolls on the Dulles Access Road could subsidize funding for building the Bi-County Parkway on the other side of the airport. 

Commuters going east towards Tysons and DC on the Dulles Access Road, as well as actual users of the Bi-County Parkway, could help to finance the new road.

Sources:

1. “Governor McDonnell Makes Amendments to Strengthen Major Transportation Package,” Commonwealth of Virginia news release, March 26, 2013
2. “List of Highway Projects - Governor's 2013 Transportation Funding Proposal Overview of Recommended Projects,” Virginia’s Road to the Future website,
3. “Final Report,” Northern Virginia North-South Corridor of Statewide Significance – Corridor Master Plan, Commonwealth of Virginia Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment, April 8, 2013, p.4-6,
4. “Australians May Dump Pocahontas Parkway,” Bacon’s Rebellion blog, August 10, 2012
5. “U.S. 460 Upgrade a Done Deal,” Bacon’s Rebellion blog, December 20, 2012

Myth 6: The proposed road will conserve history

Reality: Building a four-lane (or eight-lane) highway through a national park, and an official Historic District adjacent to the park, can not be described as a plus for historic preservation.
 
The National Park Service will not oppose the Bi-County Parkway. That Federal agency will hammer out a Programmatic Agreement with VDOT to authorize the road to cross four acres of Manassas National Battlefield Park, as well as the official Historic District. 

Approval of the National Park Service is required under Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act.  In theory the Federal agency has the option of simply blocking the new road because of its unacceptable impacts on the national park.

In practice, the National Park Service will sacrifice one slice of history in order to improve another.  In the judgment of the National Park Service, eliminating commuter traffic on existing Route 234 in the battlefield, especially at the Stone House intersection, is worth the impact of the Bi-County Parkway.¹
 
National Park Service concurrence means only that the Federal agency feels it has negotiated a good bargain.  The agency is trading off permanent damages to the western edge of the national battlefield, in exchange for improving the visitor experience near the Stone House in the center of the park. 

In 1861, before the First Battle of Manassas, the 15th Alabama, 21st North Carolina, the 16th Mississippi, and the 21st Georgia regiments camped along Pageland Lane.²
   
However, the fighting was towards the east.  The General Management Plan of the park places a higher priority on closing the current roads (Route 234 and Route 29) than preserving the periphery.³

Sources:

1. “The Tri-County Parkway is looking like a done deal for Loudoun, Prince William counties,” Washington Post, September 4, 2012
2. Glenn W. LaFantasie, "Civil War Soldiers: Decimated by Disease." originally pubished in the Quarterly Journal of Military History, Spring 2004
3. "Final General Management Plan/ Environmental Impact Statement," National Park Service, April 2008,
   
   "Notice of Availability of a Record of Decision on the Final Environmental Impact Statement for the General Management Plan, Manassas National Battlefield Park," Federal Register, Volume 76, Number 138 (Tuesday, July 19, 2011), pp.42727-42728